The next fortnight will tell us a lot about Sheffield Wednesday, and even more about Henrik Pedersen. From Saturday's visit of AFC Wimbledon to Blackpool's trip to Hillsborough on 1 November, the Owls play five League One games in fifteen days. On paper, it's as kind a run as this division will offer, and that is exactly why it carries so much weight.
Here is the run:
- Sat 17 Oct: AFC Wimbledon (H)
- Tue 20 Oct: Notts County (A)
- Sat 24 Oct: Doncaster Rovers (A)
- Tue 27 Oct: Cambridge United (H)
- Sun 1 Nov: Blackpool (H)
Three home games. Only one opponent in the top ten. Notts County are 22nd with a single win from eight. Blackpool are 18th, Doncaster 16th and Wimbledon 11th. Cambridge are the outlier in 5th, with just one defeat all season.
The table says one thing
Wednesday sit 7th on 15 points from eight games: four wins, three draws and a single defeat, with a goal difference of +7. Every side above us has played at least one more game, and leaders Plymouth have played two more. We are four points off the top.
The only league defeat came at home to Bradford in August. Since then Wednesday are unbeaten in seven league games, including three away wins at Leyton Orient, Wycombe and Peterborough, each by 2-1. Taken on its own, that's the record of a side in a strong position.
The performances say another
The numbers don't tell the whole story, and the mood around the club this week shows it. As we wrote in Pedersen at the crossroads, Saturday's 2-2 at Huddersfield was a point rather than a performance. We were second best for an hour and rescued by an own goal and a 98th-minute penalty. We're outscoring our expected goals, and too much of our attacking output is coming from set pieces and mistakes rather than chances we've created ourselves.
Hillsborough is where this shows most. Take the 7-2 against Bromley out of the picture and Wednesday have played three home league games without scoring: a 1-0 defeat to Bradford, then goalless draws with Wigan and Stockport. Three of the next five are at home, against sides who will come for a point and sit in. A slow, sideways build-up won't break them down.
Pedersen knows it. After Huddersfield he was blunter than we've heard him, saying his side had worked through the international break on playing forward and then didn't do it until they were 2-0 down. That's the right message. Over the next fortnight he has to show he can get his team to deliver it from the first whistle, not only when they're chasing the game.
Injury roundup: who's back, who's not
Five games in fifteen days, with two midweek fixtures, will stretch any squad, so availability could decide how many points Wednesday take from this run. Here's where things stand going into Saturday.
Louie Barry (ankle): out for the whole run. He was injured against Wycombe at the start of September, and Pedersen told The Star he hopes to have him back after the November international break. That puts Barnsley away on 20 November in the frame. He's been badly missed. Barry had three goals and an assist in four appearances, and since his injury Wednesday haven't scored in a home league game. Callum Slattery and Jamal Lowe have both tried on the left without filling the gap, and Harry Gray looks the most natural replacement.
Ricardo Santos (groin): awaiting test results after picking up the problem against Sunderland's under-21s in the Trophy last week.
Liam Cooper (head): took a nasty boot to the head at Huddersfield while winning the penalty that rescued the point. Nothing has been reported since to suggest he'll miss out, but it was a heavy knock and one to keep an eye on, with three games in eight days ahead.
Dishon Bernard: steady since his return and still building back to 100%, but it's great to have him back. With Santos awaiting results and Cooper carrying a knock, his return looks well timed.
Ali Al-Hamadi (ankle): stepping up training this week after a knock. That gives Pedersen another attacking option for a run where goals at Hillsborough are badly needed.
Max Lowe and Sil Swinkels (hamstring): both stepping up training this week. If they come through it, the defence gets welcome depth just as the midweek games arrive.
Jordi Liongola (hamstring): still two to three weeks away. At best, he's in line for the back end of this run, around the Cambridge and Blackpool games.
It's a mixed picture. Barry's absence is the big one, and the Santos result could leave the back line thin. But Bernard is building up, and three more players are back in training. That should give Pedersen real options by the time Notts County and Doncaster come round, four days apart and both away. How he rotates through that stretch will be another sign of how far he has moved on from last season, when he was simply keeping the club going with whatever he had.
What counts as a good return?
Our current rate is just under 1.9 points per game, which projects to nine or ten points from five. The pace that usually wins automatic promotion from this league is around two points per game, or ten from five.
Ten points is the benchmark: three wins and a draw. With this set of opponents, that's a fair expectation rather than an ambitious one, even without Barry. Twelve or more would put Wednesday in or around the top two going into November. Anything below nine would feel like a real opportunity missed, and it would give the doubts about the manager something solid to stand on. November doesn't get easier either, with Plymouth and Reading at home and trips to Barnsley and Stevenage.
Wimbledon and Blackpool at home should be wins. If we can't beat sides in the bottom half at Hillsborough, the home problem becomes impossible to ignore. Cambridge in midweek is the real test, and a draw there would be no disaster. Notts County away is a must-win on current form. Doncaster is a derby, and derbies tend to ignore the table. A point at the Eco-Power Stadium would keep things on track.
Results alone won't settle it
The points matter most, but the way we get them matters too. Scraping ten points through late penalties and own goals would keep us in the promotion race without settling the bigger question. Ten points that come from taking games to opponents, especially at home, would show Pedersen's message from Huddersfield has got through.
The verdict
The fixtures are kind, the table is healthy and the games in hand are there to be used. That's why this run is such a fair test. Hit double figures with performances to match and the debate about the manager quietens down, with Wednesday going into November as genuine contenders for the top two and Barry still to come back. Fall short against this set of opponents and the questions about Pedersen will only get louder.
Sources: The Star
Image Credit : SWFC